The Volleyball Gods are having fun at the Veracruz Challenge. Coming into this weekend, the final of the World Championship qualifying period, two teams — Chaim Schalk and James Shaw of USA Volleyball, George and Saymon of Brazil — were on the outside looking in. Both needed top-fives to push their way into the requisite top-25, with a few other variables still in play.
At 6 p.m. eastern, they play one another in the quarterfinals of what is amounting to a de facto play-in match for Schalk and Shaw to the World Championships this fall.
Coming into Veracruz, George and Saymon held a 140-point lead over Schalk and Shaw. George and Saymon are dropping a 400-point finish with a result in the top-10, while Schalk and Shaw are dropping a 380. In making the quarterfinals, both are already sitting on a 600-point finish, pushing Schalk and Shaw’s total to 3,420 and George and Saymon to 3,540. Already, then, George and Saymon have jumped Marco Krattiger and Leo Dillier, Joao Pedrosa and Hugo Campos, Lukas Pfretzschner and Sven Winter, and Hendrik Mol and Mathias Berntsen. All of those teams are out of Veracruz or didn’t play.
A fifth would only bump up Schalk and Shaw one spot behind Krattiger and Dillier, to No. 24.
This is in the top-25, yes. But there’s a catch to the World Championships: Two spots in that top-25 are reserved for Australian teams. Currently, only one of those spots, No. 17 Izac Carracher and Mark Nicolaidis, is occupied. Another wild card spot, then, still needs to be filled in the top-25. Teams essentially have to be in the top-23 to account for the two Australian spots.
With a loss against George and Saymon, Schalk and Shaw would be one spot out, and that doesn’t take into account the teams behind them making a desperation push in Chris Dressler and Philipp Waller, Adrian Heidrich and Jonathan Jordan, Julian Freidli and Yves Haussener, and Matthew Immers and Ruben Penninga.
Even in the event of a loss, however, there would be glimmers of hope.
Chase Budinger and Miles Evans snuck into the 2023 World Championships in Tlaxcala, Mexico, because Gambia couldn’t get their visas in time. Australia is known for being strict on who they let in and whom they do not, namely those who have committed serious crimes, as detailed in section 501 of the 1958 Migration Act. Sitting at No. 9 is Alex Brouwer and Steve van de Velde, the latter of whom has a well-documented criminal past. It’s possible, if not probable, his visa will be denied. If that visa is denied, it’s likely their spot would trickle down to the next team in the rankings, although when that would happen is yet to be determined.
In the event of a trickle down, the team who would receive that, at the moment, would be Schalk and Shaw.
Still, a win is the easiest path forward. One more win, and Schalk and Shaw are all but guaranteed to be competing in Adelaide this fall.
